Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.019847 0.022534 0.025460 0.028885 0.032787 0.037095 0.042216
2025-03-16 0.015286 0.018883 0.023150 0.028591 0.035357 0.043511 0.054106
2025-03-23 0.013282 0.017373 0.022515 0.029467 0.038649 0.050397 0.066632
2025-03-30 0.011214 0.015361 0.020823 0.028568 0.039308 0.053742 0.074718
2025-04-06 0.009816 0.013993 0.019721 0.028184 0.040431 0.057606 0.083690
2025-04-13 0.008499 0.012549 0.018306 0.027127 0.040385 0.059696 0.090199
2025-04-20 0.007952 0.012132 0.018275 0.028014 0.043178 0.066065 0.103576
2025-04-27 0.007438 0.011696 0.018149 0.028707 0.045691 0.072188 0.117132
2025-05-04 0.007032 0.011374 0.018147 0.029561 0.048497 0.078973 0.132368
2025-05-11 0.006442 0.010696 0.017509 0.029311 0.049456 0.082827 0.143085
2025-05-18 0.005981 0.010178 0.017075 0.029336 0.050843 0.087467 0.155536
2025-05-25 0.005494 0.009571 0.016431 0.028930 0.051425 0.090746 0.165855
2025-06-01 0.005209 0.009294 0.016339 0.029503 0.053832 0.097519 0.183365
2025-06-08 0.004811 0.008783 0.015792 0.029213 0.054653 0.101530 0.196181
2025-06-15 0.004629 0.008642 0.015892 0.030108 0.057742 0.109982 0.218349
2025-06-22 0.004213 0.008031 0.015073 0.029189 0.057267 0.111611 0.227179
2025-06-29 0.003909 0.007602 0.014556 0.028797 0.057769 0.115150 0.240184
2025-07-06 0.003551 0.007037 0.013730 0.027716 0.056783 0.115619 0.246816
2025-07-13 0.003453 0.006978 0.013885 0.028623 0.059939 0.124782 0.272897
2025-07-20 0.003338 0.006876 0.013942 0.029331 0.062736 0.133443 0.298768
2025-07-27 0.003248 0.006814 0.014075 0.030205 0.065963 0.143302 0.328337
2025-08-03 0.003054 0.006518 0.013698 0.029949 0.066689 0.147773 0.345991
2025-08-10 0.002900 0.006297 0.013461 0.029975 0.068042 0.153748 0.367781